Tariffs, Trade, and Turbulence: Reading the Signals in U.S.-China Shipping Trends

30 Avr Tariffs, Trade, and Turbulence: Reading the Signals in U.S.-China Shipping Trends

Five years after the COVID-19 pandemic introduced a wave of uncertainty and forced economists to rely on real-time indicators like mobility data and restaurant bookings, the logistics world is once again looking for alternative metrics to understand a rapidly shifting landscape. This time, the disruption comes from the return of high-stakes tariff policies targeting Chinese imports—an economic maneuver that’s already causing significant ripples across global trade.

While traditional data such as GDP and employment reports remain important, they tend to lag behind real-world shifts. More immediate insights can be found in shipping activity, bookings, and pricing trends—offering a clearer view into what’s unfolding at the intersection of policy and port.

The Early Warnings Are Mixed
Initial data from the weeks following the latest tariff announcements suggest a temporary lull in visible impact. Ports like Los Angeles and Long Beach—the main gateways for goods from Asia—received roughly the same cargo tonnage in late April as they did a year earlier. But this view is deceptive. Many vessels arriving during this period likely departed before the new tariffs took effect.

The deeper story lies in what’s happening beneath the surface. Bookings for new shipments between China and the U.S. dropped sharply—by about 45% year-over-year in mid-April. Blank sailings, where scheduled trips are skipped to manage excess capacity, have surged to 40% of all planned routes. These shifts signal growing hesitation and disruption in the trans-Pacific supply chain.

Rerouting the Global Trade Map
Shipping prices provide another layer of insight. The cost of transporting goods from China to the U.S. West Coast has declined notably in recent weeks, reflecting a drop in demand following a period of “front-loading” inventory before the tariffs hit. Conversely, rates from Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam to the U.S. have risen—evidence that importers are already diversifying supply chains and shifting sourcing strategies.

These pricing shifts suggest more than just a tactical response—they hint at structural realignments in global trade, as companies work to hedge against geopolitical uncertainty.

Real Impact Takes Time to Arrive
Despite these signals, the broader U.S. economy has not yet shown signs of significant strain. Job openings and consumer spending remain steady for now. But this may be the calm before the storm. The effects of trade shocks often take time to permeate operations. Many firms likely stockpiled inventory in advance and are now leaning on bonded warehouse storage to delay customs costs until absolutely necessary.

The result? A temporary buffer that could delay—but not prevent—price increases, supply disruptions, and shifts in procurement. Companies locked into existing contracts or customer commitments may be holding prices steady for now, but that will become increasingly difficult as inventories dwindle.

Uncertainty Is the New Normal
Logistics providers are no strangers to disruption. From COVID-19 and Suez Canal blockages to Red Sea shipping risks, the past decade has tested the resilience of global supply chains. But erratic policy changes add a unique kind of uncertainty—one that freezes investment decisions and clouds forward planning.

Even if tariffs are rolled back or adjusted, the lag in vessel departures, uneven inventory flows, and hesitancy around long-term commitments will continue to cast a shadow over global trade. The U.S. economy may not be in crisis yet, but shipping trends suggest growing turbulence on the horizon.

At Prime Freight, we’re closely monitoring these developments to help our partners navigate the uncertainty with smart, responsive logistics strategies. As global conditions shift, real-time insights and agile execution will be key to staying ahead.