03 Oct Day 3 of US East & Gulf Coast Port Strike: Mounting Vessel Congestion and Capacity Losses
As the US East and Gulf coast port strike enters its third day, container supply chain analysts are beginning to assess the growing impact on global shipping capacity. Sea-Intelligence Consulting estimates that around 60 vessels and approximately 775,000 teu (twenty-foot equivalent units) of capacity could be tied up at anchor in the first week alone.
Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, emphasized that if the strike continues through October, the cumulative impact could escalate significantly. While the first week’s loss is projected to reach 775,000 teu, subsequent weeks could result in additional capacity losses of around 443,000 teu per week as more ships arrive.
Sea-Intelligence identified that 331 deepsea container vessels were scheduled for nearly 1,000 port calls between October 1 and October 20 at US and Canadian East Coast ports. With 62 liner services directly affected by the strike, approximately 400,000 teu of capacity could be tied up weekly.
Should the strike persist for the entire month of October, it could immobilize up to 2.22 million teu of global container shipping capacity, accounting for 7.2% of the global fleet.
The strike’s extended duration could lead to dramatic increases in freight rates. Drawing on pandemic-era capacity-loss models, Sea-Intelligence projects that spot rates for Asia-US East Coast could rise by $2,500 per 40ft container in the first week, and $1,400 per 40ft in each subsequent week. Asia-US West Coast rates could see similar increases, with potential cost spikes across other global trades due to capacity shortages.
As the strike continues, its ripple effects on global supply chains and pricing are expected to deepen, potentially causing widespread disruptions.